| RotoFreak.com: Detroit Pistons Fantasy Preview Authored by Craig Huffman - October 10, 2006 - 2:00 am
Chauncey Billups – Thanks to Flip Saunders, the Pistons' offense is finally out of the league's cellar, and some player values increased last year because of it. Meet Chauncey Billups... whose assists boosted by 3 per game, and who also saw improvements in PTS, 3PTM and TO. Despite a significant drop in FG%, Billups still managed to go from the top 25 to the top 15. With nothing of significance backing him up, Dumars bringing in even more offense this offseason (Mohammed and Murray), and Billups looking for that big contract, we think he'll be one of the safer picks in the top 20 this year.
Rasheed Wallace – With Big Ben out of the mix, you'd think that Sheed is a lock-in to improve his defensive stats this year. Although he has a little bit more upside in REB and BLK, it's really not enough to warrant boosting his fantasy value from last year. He does have some downside, though... namely, those 3pt attempts. In an ideal world, Sheed wouldn't be hanging around the perimeter launching 3's. Last year, he more than doubled his career average in the category. Those extra launches, by themselves, boosted his fantasy value by 15 ranks. When you factor in that Sheed's 3pt percentage dropped by 6 points after the All Star break last year (to under 32 percent), it's certainly cause for concern. To side with caution, we've dropped his 3PTM to 1.7 per, and are thinking that the risk of that dropping further is covered by the reward of any extra rebounds and blocks coming his way. Although he has lost center eligibility in most leagues, the 30th pick - give or take - is still a decent risk/reward spot for him.
Richard Hamilton – Despite seeing a drop in mpg from 38.5 to 35.3, Rip managed to put forth his best fantasy basketball season of his career in 05-06. Some of that can be attributed to a better flow in the offense; however, let's not forget how focused Rip was in the offseason on improving that outside shot. Despite driving the lane less than ever before, and never making more 3pt'ers, Rip managed to shoot over 49% from the field last year. It's safe to say that that worked paid. This offseason, let's hope that he worked on his one-on-one game, as he could use more attempts from the line and the extra space for that newly-developed 3pt'er. For now, we'll stick him around last year's value (65), though. He has top-50 upside; however, there's risk that the FG% and TO creep closer to his career averages.
Tayshaun Prince – Prince's owners were mildly disappointed with their return on investment last year. He got more touches on the offensive end and decreased his turnovers; however, he dropped in points, percentages, rebounds, assists, and blocks. Overall, it caused him to drop 30 ranks (to 90). This year, we're expecting to see most of that value return. He'll be helping out more on the defensive end, and he'll need to distribute the ball more when Billups isn't on the court. With that in mind, we're looking at him around the 75th pick. If he can get those percentages back on track, the upside is closer to 50. If you're hung on a few players, Prince could be worth the risk of letting fall to your next pick, though. A lot of managers will have him tied to last year's value.
Nazr Mohammed – With Sheed able to play the 5, and Dyess looking for solid burn off the bench, Nazr's minutes won't be particularly strong. And he's a below-average shotblocker. But, his percentages are solid, his turnovers are in check, and his rebound and steal totals are above average. If he can manage 30 mpg, the top 75 is definitely within reach. 25 mpg is his downside, though... which would put him near the top 150. With Nazr signed long term, and the Pistons thin at the 5, we think Nazr will live up to a 105 rank. He's likely available in your draft in the 125 to 150 range, though. The poorer the competition, the more you can let him fall.
Antonio McDyess – We've received two straight healthy years from McDyess; so, we feel like we're on borrowed time here. Nonetheless, with Dyess still a starting-caliber PF, and Detroit's frontcourt thin, he is due for an increase in minutes. He is 32, though... which means that whatever explosiveness those 3 knee surgeries didn't take away, the age has mostly taken care of. So, the 20 and 10 days are definitely over. His post-Darko numbers of 10 and 7 (in 25 mpg) appears to be likely, which would put around the top 140. You should be able to grab him a round later than that, though.
Carlos Delfino – Delfino has been one of the more consistent players in the NBA... at whining for minutes. His lack of minutes doesn't necessarily mean that he sucks, though - just his attitude. He's a pass-first slasher and a proven performer for Argentina on the international stage. Unfortunately, minutes are a still an issue as Ronald Murray will be collecting back-up minutes at the 2. If Rip or Prince goes down with an injury, we won't be afraid to try him on for size.
Ronald Murray – There's a reason why Flip has been traded for scraps and signed for nothing... his lack of handles has him stuck at the 2, and his streaky shot and poor defense makes him no better than a backup. He couldn't break the top 150 last year when given 37 mpg, and he'll be lucky to get half of those minutes this year. We'll let you do the math on this one.
Lindsey Hunter – Yes, Lindsey is still in the league, don't ask us how. Even more sad is the fact that he's Detroit's backup PG. Unless Billups gets injured, let him be.
Jason Maxiell – We're actually keeping an eye on this kid. He's an undersized PF; however, he's got the muscle and heart of a center. He lost 20 lbs which will give him a little more quickness... if he works on his rebounding and can get that FT% back up to his days as a Bearcat he might turn into something down the road.
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